Tesla’s Stock Has Lost Half Its Value From the Peak. The Elon Musk Discount Is Now Quantifiable.

Fifty is a figure that frequently appears in discussions about Tesla these days. That is, half of it. In other words, the company’s stock value has dropped by half since its December peak, when it was momentarily worth more than the next ten automakers put together. It’s not a dip. It’s not a correction. That is more akin to a verdict, and the market has been delivering it for months, both silently and all at once.

On December 17, 2024, Tesla’s stock reached $479.86. At the time, it seemed as though the market was pricing in a golden age, with a second Trump term that was business-friendly, an untouchable CEO, and a pipeline of robotaxis and humanoid robots glimmering in the distance.

Something changed after Elon Musk traveled to Washington. Since then, the stock has dropped every week. Seven weeks in a row of defeats. The longest losing streak since Tesla first listed on the Nasdaq back in 2010, when the company was still a peculiar bet that most serious investors passed on.

It’s possible that the situation cannot be explained by a single factor. However, it’s difficult to ignore how closely the timeline corresponds with Musk’s growing involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, where he has emerged as the most prominent and divisive figure in the Trump administration’s attempt to dismantle the federal workforce.

Protesters have displayed cardboard signs and chalk outside Tesla showrooms in Denver and San Francisco. A Tesla service center in Loveland, Colorado, has been the target of several arson attempts, the most recent of which occurred in early March. These brand-sentiment metrics are not abstract. These are actual locations that are either avoided or, worse, targeted.

Ben Kallo, a Baird analyst, put it bluntly on CNBC: even supporters begin to second-guess themselves when they fear their car may be keyed in a parking lot. Five years ago, when the brand had a kind of cultural momentum that seemed nearly impervious to conflict, no Tesla executive could have imagined having to deal with that statement.

It is more difficult to explain the numbers abroad. While the overall EV market expanded by 28%, Tesla sales in Europe fell by about 50% in the first two months of the year. March data revealed a 37% decrease in France alone. In certain aspects, China has been worse: shipments have decreased year over year for five months running, with a 49% decline in February.

It says something about the product itself that the Model Y continues to be the best-selling electric car in the world. However, the Model 3 is currently being outsold in China by Geely’s Geome brand. Not too long ago, that statement would have seemed ridiculous.

The figures were sufficiently imprecise to be interpreted as a true turning point when Tesla released its first-quarter results. Revenue has decreased by 9%. Profit decreased by 71%. Deliveries for the quarter came in at about 390,000 cars, far less than the 460,000 Wall Street had predicted just three months prior.

This is what analysts feared rather than anticipated. Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster called the decline in demand “pretty profound.” From someone who has followed Tesla for years and has a sincere belief in what the company was creating, the word “profound” carries weight.

The odd thing is that Tesla‘s stock increased after Musk subtly hinted that he would reduce his DOGE involvement to one or two days per week. The market still seems to think that Musk’s attention is the most important factor, not because the earnings were good, which they weren’t.

That dynamic is almost uncomfortable. The stock of a company with hundreds of thousands of workers, a global supply chain, and factories spread across three continents shifts because one employee promises to show up more frequently. Perhaps more than anything else, it demonstrates how thoroughly one man’s persona has been combined with Tesla’s identity.

In a way never seen before, that fusion is now a business issue. Investor and consumer trust seem to be going in different directions: while investors are buying back into Musk’s promises, consumers in China and Europe are subtly moving to alternatives.

According to Musk, Tesla is “increasingly an AI and robotics company,” departing from the notion that it is essentially an automaker. It is genuinely unclear whether that reframing will be accepted by the general public, regulators, or the workers whose jobs depend on the continuation of vehicle production lines.

The cost of his divided attention is now evident, or at least measurable. Since December, the market capitalization of eight hundred billion dollars has vanished. The value of Tesla’s stock has dropped by half since its peak, and the Elon Musk discount, which was previously only discussed in hedged terms by analysts, has emerged as the key narrative of 2025. There is currently no definitive answer to the question of whether the company can distinguish that story from its own.