Anthropic Stock Hits $1 Trillion on Secondary Markets — And Wall Street Didn’t See It Coming

Anyone keeping a close eye on the private markets this spring can sense that something strange is going on. According to reports, Anthropic, an AI research company started just five years ago by two siblings who were formerly employed at OpenAI, has surpassed a $1 trillion secondary market valuation. The amount was $380 billion three months prior to that. It’s not just a steep jump. It’s the kind of figure that causes seasoned investors to stop in their tracks.

OpenAI is currently trading at about $880 billion, which is below the trillion-dollar mark, according to Kelly Rodriques, the head of Forge Global. That reversal is important. Even though OpenAI raised $852 billion in its most recent primary round—more than twice Anthropic’s February valuation—buyers on the secondary market are now prepared to pay more for the smaller company’s shares. It’s possible that investors’ perceptions of AI have fundamentally changed. Alternatively, the entire system might be a little overheated. Most likely both.

Nowadays, if you walk into any San Francisco venture office, someone will be discussing Claude Code. The programming assistant outpaced the growth curves of ChatGPT, Slack, and GitHub Copilot during their own breakout periods, going from a quiet launch in May of last year to more than $2.5 billion in annualized revenue by early 2026. Conversations are altered by that kind of number. Instead of just hoping to one day justify valuations, investors who previously viewed AI as a narrative play are now staring at predictable cash flow.

Meanwhile, Amazon continues to write checks. In exchange for Anthropic agreeing to spend more than $100 billion on AWS infrastructure over the next ten years, the company recently declared that it would increase its overall Anthropic commitment to $33 billion. It’s a massive circular configuration, the kind Silicon Valley has always excelled at creating. It was presented by Andy Jassy as confirmation of Amazon’s unique Trainium chips. According to Bank of America analysts, AWS alone generated about $1.3 billion in revenue in the first quarter. It’s important to consider whether there is a mutual reliance or a partnership.

The part that frustrates retail investors is straightforward. Anthropic stock is not available for purchase on the NYSE or Nasdaq. It is primarily available to accredited investors with high minimums and trades on secondary venues like Hiive and Forge. The current rally is “epic,” according to Glen Anderson of Rainmaker Securities, who also pointed out that a large portion of the buying isn’t strictly rational. The status of owning Anthropic shares is more important to some buyers than the potential return. FOMO has a premium pricing strategy of its own.

The company’s politics are another issue. Anthropic became somewhat of a folk hero in some parts of the tech industry after its public standoff with the Department of Defense earlier this year. Fair or not, that perception has encouraged purchases. People appear to want a piece of the rejected company.

It’s difficult to avoid thinking about previous cycles as you watch this develop. Years ago, Tesla encountered similar skepticism, and those who watched from the sidelines eventually had to accept that they were either mistaken or correct too soon. Claude’s continued compounding will determine whether Anthropic is able to justify a trillion-dollar figure. As of right now, investors are placing their bets, the AI economy’s factories are operating, and checks are clearing. Nobody is quite sure yet whether this is the start of something long-lasting or the froth before a correction.